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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still