Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
